People’s expectations of the economy reached a new low, having fallen almost 40pts since July 2024, says new data from the British Retail Consortium (BRC).
According to BRC-Opinium Consumer Sentiment data, consumer expectations over the next three months show the state of the economy worsened to -37 in February, down from -34 in January. This is the fifth consecutive month in which expectations have worsened.
Their personal financial situation dropped to -11 in February, down from -4 in January. Their personal spending on retail rose to -5 in February, up from -9 in January.
Their personal spending overall remained at +4 in February, the same as in January. Their personal saving remained at -3 in February, the same as in January.
Within the categories, consumer expectations over the same period for spending on home and garden furniture are down -10%, improving from -15% the previous month, while DIY and home improvements were also down by -1%, narrowing from -6%.
Helen Dickinson, Chief Executive of the British Retail Consortium, said: “With many businesses warning of the impact that April’s employer NIC’s increase will have on hiring, and the rising energy price cap pushing up the cost of domestic bills, it is little surprise that many households are worried. And while there was a positive increase in expectations of personal retail spending, this may be largely driven by the expectations of higher prices in the future.
“Expectations of higher prices are not unfounded, with two-thirds of retailers saying prices will have to rise as a result of the £7bn in additional costs, including higher employer NICs and a new packaging levy. Almost half of retailers also warned of hiring freezes, with entry-level jobs often among the first to go as they seek any cost efficiencies to help them protect customers from the worst of the rising costs.
“As the Government bill on the future of business rates progresses through Parliament, it is essential that no shop ends up paying more in rates as a result of these reforms, otherwise retailers will face a triple whammy of Budget costs, business rates rises, and new packaging and recycling levies, all of which will filter through to consumer prices.”
