House sales and homemovers play a significant part in boosting the furnishing industry. We take a look at how the housing market is changing through the new TwentyCi Property & Homemover End of Year 2025 Report.
According to the latest TwentyCi report, exchange volumes in 2025 were close to achieving one million, marking a 12.6% increase on the previous year. Both New Instructions and Sales Agreed volumes recorded modest year-on-year growth of 2.1% and 2.3%, respectively.
However, volumes mask a year that had the potential to deliver a further resurgence on the residential property sector:
• H1 enjoyed a strong level of transactions, supported by the Stamp Duty concession. At the start of the year, residential buyers still benefited from the temporary higher nil-rate threshold of £250,000, which reverted to £125,000 on 31st March 2025. Meanwhile, first-time buyers saw their nil-rate threshold return to £300,000 from £425,000. The conclusion of the stamp duty relief removed a key support for transactions, ultimately slowing activity.
• There was significant market softening in the latter part of 2025, driven by reduced consumer confidence ahead of the November Budget. This was further reinforced by the announcement of a mansion tax on properties valued over £2 million, due to take effect in April 2028. This has led to further high-end buyer caution in the premium market.
• Rising second-home council tax rates discouraged buyers from purchasing extra properties, slowing transactions in the top-end and holiday-home market.
• Price changes, Fallen Throughs and Withdrawn changes are reflective of a greater volume of transactions and a softening of the market in Q4.
Meanwhile, growth in demand in 2025 compared to 2024 is observed in all UK regions, with the exception of Northern Ireland and London.
Welsh properties were most in demand, with year-on-year growth of 6.5%. The East Midlands followed with a 5.0% rise in Sales Agreed compared to 2024. Regionally, Inner London fared the worst, with a fall in Sales Agreed of 5.5% compared to 2024, and outer London experienced a decline of 1.9%.
The drop in demand for properties in the capital has been exacerbated by the rumours, and then the confirmation, of a mansion tax. The Government’s decision to apply the surcharge at a uniform national threshold means the South, where property prices are higher, will inevitably be hit hardest.
Looking at major cities, Cardiff experienced a 6.7% increase year-on-year of properties securing a sale, with Manchester closely behind at 6.1%. Meanwhile, Southampton and Norwich’s Sales Agreed volumes remained static.
Moving to the rental sector, this has seen a significant easing in supply pressures, with a near 10% increase in the volume of properties coming to let in 2025 compared to 2024. One of the key drivers is likely net migration.
With existing residents leaving, previously occupied homes have been freed up, contributing to the rise in rental availability across the market and alleviating some of the strain being felt in the rental market.
Outer London experienced the largest year-on-year increase in Lets Agreed, rising by 14.1%. Wales also emerged as an increasingly attractive rental location, experiencing a 11.8% growth year-on-year. Northern Ireland was the only region to see Lets Agreed fall, with a decline of 6.3% compared to 2024. In terms of major cities, Cardiff and Leeds led the way with a 12% increase in Lets Agreed year-on-year.
Looking ahead, TwentyCi also analysed the early data from the start of 2026 to assess whether any preliminary signs of recovery were emerging. Whilst Sales Agreed remain lower year-on-year, the supply of New Instructions has increased by 16.5% nationally and 17.9% in London. This uplift may reflect increased confidence following greater clarity in the Budget around the proposed mansion tax.
With the final measures proving less severe than initially expected, homeowners in the capital may now feel more assured about bringing property to market in 2026. Though the 22.7% drop in demand suggests continued buyer caution. Though it must be remembered that we are very much still in the starting blocks of 2026 and seasonal dips are to be expected in January.
With homemovers contributing approximately 3% of GDP to the economy, any stabilisation could have a meaningful effect in the year ahead. The full impact of the Budget on the property market in 2026 remains uncertain.
Given that three interest rate cuts by the Bank of England in 2025, before the Budget, did little to offset its impact, it is unclear whether the latest cut to 3.75% on 18th December 2025 will have a significant effect.
The Homemover Wave
The Homemover Wave represents its proprietary methodology, describing the notable increase in consumer expenditure and demand for services associated with a home move. Homemovers typically require new furniture, appliances, and essential home goods for their new property.
Given that homemovers spend considerably more than non-movers, they constitute a valuable target demographic for retailers. Gaining insight into the Homemover Wave – and pinpointing when customers are most likely to purchase specific goods during their home-moving journey – enables you to optimise customer targeting and engage them at the most opportune moments.
As of the beginning of January 2026, nearly 1.5 million households are progressing through the owner-occupied homemover journey, marking an increase of 100k compared to January 2025. The increase highlights continued momentum within the market despite the Government derived slowdown in Q4 and we should anticipate a positive year ahead for the volume of homemovers.
Colin Bradshw, CEO at TwentyCi, commented: “The 2025 property market weathered everything that was thrown at it. A series of government policy decisions left little incentive for the nation to move, from the end of stamp duty relief to higher council tax on second homes and, more recently, confirmation of the hotly rumoured mansion tax. Yet transactions were still up on the prior year.
“We’re entering 2026 following a further base rate cut by the Bank of England in December and robust sales agreed volumes, which point to steady transaction growth flowing well into the new year. Despite a market exposed to several potential risks, we maintain steady confidence in the market’s resilience. If 2025 has taught us anything, it’s that people will continue to move, come what may.”
Alex Bannister, Independent Board Advisor, added: “Looking ahead to the UK housing market in 2026, I’d say, like Ian Dury did, that there are reasons to be cheerful. First, UK mortgage rates should decline, as inflation is finally under control, and help boost confidence for prospective home buyers, for whom renting remains unattractive despite the cessation of high rent growth.
“Second, lenders remain sanguine about credit losses on UK housing and are likely to loosen the taps on mortgage lending with regulator and government support, given that this is the only thing that helps first-time buyers get their foot on the housing ladder.
“Third, even if UK economic performance remains unspectacular, there is nothing to suggest a more extreme economic downturn, so another year of “steady as she goes” looks on the cards. I would be at the upper end of the forecast range again this year, with price growth of 3%+ likely and transactions north of 1.2m.”
